MOST IMPORTANT: DON'T TAKE IT PERSONALLY. Not easy, we know. But a
lot of what happens to us - success in our careers, in our investments, and in
our life decisions, both major and minor - is as much the result of random
factors as the result of skill, preparedness, and hard work. We habitually
underestimate the effects of randomness.
Daniel Kahneman is a psychologist who received a Nobel Prize in 2002 - but
for economics! For decades, he studied and clarified the kinds of
misperceptions of randomness that lead all of us to gravely misunderstand
random processes that affect all aspects of our lives. The reality that we
perceive is not a direct reflection of the people or circumstances than
underlie it but is instead an image blurred by the randomizing effects of
unforeseeable or fluctuating external events. That is not to say that ability
doesn't matter - it is one of the factors that increase the chances of success
- but the connection between actions and results is not as direct as we might
like to believe.
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